进口贸易视域下国际粮价对国内粮价的传导路径--来自玉米和大豆的证据

基于玉米和大豆等粮食国际、国内价格历史数据,运用协整及误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,揭示国际粮价对国内粮价的传导作用及影响路径。理论分析表明,国际粮价通过进口直接路径、进口产品成本路径和进口替代路径等三个子路径传导至国内粮价。实证检验发现,国际大豆价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导均比较充分,即国际大豆价格会影响大豆进口价格,进而影响国内大豆价格,最终影响国内豆油价格;国际玉米价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导则不充分,国际玉米价格会影响玉米进口价格,但是对国内玉米价格和国内玉米淀粉价格影响程度较低;而在进口替代路径中,玉米和大豆的国际价格传导均不充分。我国应继续推进以提质增效为目标的农业供给侧结构性改革,加大粮食生产科技投入力度,调动农民种粮积极性,集中力量提高粮食供给质量和效率;坚持粮食进口仅为调剂国内供求余缺的方针,把握粮食安全的主动权;建立健全粮食市场的价格调控体系及风险防控体系,规避国际粮食市场剧烈波动对国内粮食市场的影响。     

人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响

人工智能技术的快速发展正催生第四次工业革命,可能引发全球价值链深度重构和世界经贸格局重大变革。世界主要经济强国将发展人工智能技术作为争夺新一轮产业竞争优势的重要战略抓手。本文基于全球价值链视角研究人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响,我们发现人工智能技术变革可能推动国际贸易规模扩大,提升服务贸易份额,并促进国际贸易交易模式平台化、小宗化,可为中小企业创造更多参与国际贸易的机会。然而,人工智能技术变革也可能通过降低企业劳动力需求从而对我国等发展中国家的出口拉动型增长模式造成严重的潜在威胁。为应对人工智能技术变革,我国应部署并强化对人工智能产业发展的政策支持,加快培育制造业国际竞争新优势,大力推动先进制造业与现代生产性服务业深度融合发展,全面促进"中国制造"攀升全球价值链中高端。     

论国际投资仲裁中第三方资助披露问题

国际投资仲裁中的第三方资助不同于国际商事仲裁中的第三方资助,应对其进行专门研究。披露是规制第三方资助的关键。国际投资仲裁中关于第三方资助披露的规则呈现出缺位和模糊的总体特点。在国际投资仲裁中,第三方资助的受资助方基本均为申请人。由相关案件可知,现行实践与规则并不适配。实践中,披露的发起一般经由被申请人请求或仲裁庭要求,被申请人要求披露的原因常见于利益冲突和透明度,仲裁庭对披露要求的拒绝一般基于对披露程度的考量。将规则与实践对比分析可知,规定仲裁庭要求披露的时间,严格把控第三方资助的披露程度,是完善国际投资仲裁中第三方资助披露规制的可行路径。     

Entrepreneurial ecosystems

International business fundamentally is about creating an ecosystem environment conducive to entrepreneurship. This means fostering actions and behavior that provide a systemic interaction with multiple entities. In this editorial for the special journal issue, the historical background and origins of the entrepreneurial ecosystem concept is discussed with the view to connected different strands of literature. This provides an optimal way to understand the way entrepreneurship develops through an ecosystem logic. The theoretical perspectives for understanding entrepreneurial ecosystems are discussed that lead to a discussion on each of the articles included in the special journal issue. Themes emerging from these articles are then stated that include a focus on value co‐creation, stakeholder collaboration and entrepreneurial networks. This enables a holistic way to understand the linkages international business has with entrepreneurial ecosystems.     

上海合作组织命运共同体:一项研究议题

构建上海合作组织命运共同体是中国政府提出的关于促进上海合作组织长远发展的重大倡议。由于上海合作组织命运共同体理念的提出时日尚短,学术界关于该理念的研究尚未全面启动。要使上海合作组织命运共同体理念成为一个有效的研究议题,不仅需要明晰上海合作组织命运共同体的具体内涵,而且需要将其纳入国际共同体、国际组织和大国外交等议题的研究,提炼出一些具有普遍性的理论命题。就攸关上海合作组织命运共同体构建的重大问题而言,至少需要回答上海合作组织命运共同体提出的理论与实践意义、上海合作组织命运共同体构建应遵循的基本路径、上海合作组织命运共同体构建的基础和条件、上海合作组织命运共同体构建面临的挑战与障碍、学术界能为上海合作组织命运共同体构建提供的对策建议等重大问题。在此过程中,学术界还需将其与周边命运共同体、人类命运共同体等家族相似性的概念纳入同一研究视域,以澄清上海合作组织命运共同体的内涵与外延,辨识上海合作组织命运共同体演变的动力与机制,并从理论层面提炼上海合作组织发展经验的特殊性与普遍性。     

兼容性制度竞争:双层对冲与地区制度的嵌套设计北大核心

地区制度的兴起增加了全球治理机制的复杂性。竞争性多边主义理论强调制度竞争会导致国际机制的碎片化和规则冲突。制度聚合理论则认为制度背景会强化规则的一致性,甚至形成制度服从。这种冲突—聚合的二分法不足以分析地区制度与多边制度之间关系的复杂现实。作者提出一个双层对冲的分析框架,以解释地区制度与核心多边制度间的联系机制;一方面,地区成员要通过建立地区制度寻求外部选项,实现对现有多边制度的制衡。另一方面,地区成员又离不开现有多边制度,需要借用现有的多边制度资源来解决地区制度建设中的机会主义问题。为了实现双层对冲,地区成员国会根据地区制度的系统冲击效应和投资报偿结构,设计不同的制度嵌套。作者比较了金融救助领域的欧洲稳定机制、清迈倡议多边化以及拉美储备基金等地区金融安排,其结果符合预期。双层对冲框架下的兼容性制度竞争有利于推动国际制度的渐进变迁,限制了大国在国际秩序转型中的冲突烈度,为世界政治的和平权力转移提供了可能。     

INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

Multinational enterprises and corporate tax planning: A review of literature and suggestions for a future research agenda

Corporate tax planning by the multinational enterprise (MNE), that is, the MNE’s ability to plan its tax affairs by using a multitude of strategies to reduce its tax bills legally, is a central research question in the literatures of international business, public economics, tax, finance, law and accounting. Underlying theoretical assumptions, approaches to empirical testing, profit shifting estimation strategies and findings are varied. Thus, it is important to conduct a critical literature review. In this paper, we offer new insights by studying the phenomenon from the international business (IB) perspective. We survey the academic literature on the MNE and corporate tax planning to examine the extent of knowledge on this topic and identify areas that we hope will stimulate interest among IB scholars for further research. We find materials across disciplines that are relevant to IB readers. We examine 120 articles in 51 scholarly journals and classic books published during the period 1966-2017. We identify the key mechanisms and the firm characteristics that may influence corporate tax planning. We suggest a research agenda where IB research can make clear contributions.     

政府补贴、国际知识产权保护与企业创新——来自战略性新兴产业上市公司的证据

政府补贴对企业创新的影响存在争议,在美国重点打击中国战略性新兴产业的背景下,补贴这一产业政策的有效性再次引起热议。本文以2012-2017年沪深A股战略性新兴产业上市公司为样本,研究在国际知识产权保护加强的背景下政府补贴对战略性新兴产业创新绩效的影响。研究发现:中国政府实施的补贴政策有利于促进战略性新兴产业创新,但国际知识产权保护加强约束了中国政府补贴的规模和空间,从而抑制了补贴政策对战略性新兴产业创新的激励作用;此外,基于企业和产业异质性视角,国际知识产权保护的加强主要抑制了补贴对国有企业、内资企业和新材料产业创新的促进作用。进一步完善补贴政策和国内的知识产权保护制度,有利于提升中国在构建国际经济新秩序中的话语权。